Fresh from celebrating a total of 10 years top the World Rugby Rankings earlier this week, New Zealand’s cushion at the top could grow to as much as 8.58 rating points if they were to beat second-ranked South Africa by more than 15 points in the Rugby Championship on Saturday.
That isn’t the biggest advantage they have enjoyed since the rankings were introduced in October 2003 as it has been beyond nine points before, but the All Blacks could also see their current cushion of 6.7 points slashed to as little as 2.58 if the Springboks were to run riot in Johannesburg.
South Africa cannot lose second place even if they suffer a second loss in the 2015 Rugby Championship, but they could end the weekend sitting a mere three tenths above Ireland, the leading northern hemisphere nation.
“This is a massive test for us and one the whole group is looking forward to,” said New Zealand coach Steve Hansen. “It doesn’t get much bigger or better than playing South Africa at Ellis Park.”
Australia, buoyed by their last-gasp 24-20 victory over the Springboks in Brisbane, cannot improve their position of fifth if they beat Argentina in Mendoza, the best they can hope for is to close to within two tenths of their RWC 2015 Pool A opponents England with a win by more than 15 points.
However, if they suffer defeat in Mendoza for the second year in a row then the Wallabies would once again slip below Wales to equal their lowest position in the rankings and undo the gains made by last weekend’s victory.
Los Pumas, for whom victory in 2014 was their first ever in the Rugby Championship, must win by more than 15 points if they are to climb above France into seventh place. They could though fall to ninth, if Samoa also beat Fiji by that same margin in the World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup 2015.
Top 10 spots at stake in PNC
Samoa and Fiji both won their opening PNC matches last weekend and whoever emerges victorious from this encounter on Friday will be the higher ranked of the two nations. Both nations, though, can slip outside of the top 10 with defeats, Fiji potentially as low as low as 13th.
Whether they fall that low will depend on what happens in the other two PNC matches on the same day, which see Canada take on Tonga in Burnaby and Japan face their RWC 2015 Pool B opponents USA in Sacramento.
“This will be another hard physical battle,” said Fiji coach John McKee, whose side have not beaten Samoan since the 2011 edition of the Pacific Nations Cup. “Samoa will take us on with direct hard running and are dangerous on counter-attack if given space.”
The USA Eagles lost 21-16 to Samoa, another of their RWC 2015 opponents, last weekend and will want to avoid another loss, one that has the potential to take Japan back into the top 10 of the rankings depending on their margin of victory.
One thing that is certain is that the Eagles cannot improve their position of 16th as they currently trail Italy by nearly five rating points. A convincing, and morale-boosting victory, over Japan though can cut that in half.
Defeat would see the USA fall below Romania, but were the Eagles to lose and their neighbours Canada overcome Tonga then the North American sides would swap places with the Canucks enjoying a two-place gain.
A victorious Canada will, though, climb above Romania with a win, even if the Eagles also pick up their first win of this Pacific Nations Cup campaign and beat Japan for the first time since their meeting at RWC 2003.
The World Rugby Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK time.
